Climatic variability in the past has been increasing and from the trends suggested in different studies, may further increase in the near future, putting urgent emphasis on how the community perceives the extent of climate change in order to design coping and adaptation strategies (Belay et al. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. 2014; Mondal et al. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. 2014). Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. 2013; Irannezhad et al. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. Annual total precipitation significantly reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds increases significantly. For more than 70% of the world's population, the primary source of their livelihood has originated from weather sensitive agriculture (Suarez et al. However, it hasno significant coverage compared to other seasons. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. Crop production showed high correlation with belg and kiremit rainfall; only annual rainfall and barley crops showed stronger correlation. 5.3.2. The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. With respect to the statistically significant level, only barley and wheat crops are significantly related to belg and kiremit rainfall. 2012; Fazzini et al. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. 2012). Is it warming or cooling? Summary of annual and seasonal rainfall, coefficient of variation and PCI. Future trends are assessed using the ensemble mean of eight regional climate model data under two emission scenarios, provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). 2010; Simane et al. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. Therefore, clear information about the annual and seasonal rainfall distribution is highly important for policy planners and local users. 2011; Pachauri et al. Spring (March, April and May)In this season, the noonday sun is shining directly on the equator while shifting north from south.The shift of the ITCZ, results in longer days and more direct solar radiation providing warmerweather for the northern world. Seasonal analysis of rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table3. The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. Conversely, low flow conditions will intensify during the warm months. The possible reason may be monthly, sub-monthly time scale, temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature, which are determinant factors of production. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. 2011). 2005). (2013), in southern Australia's Onkaparinga subcatchment and catchment, monthly rainfall heterogeneity was tested using PCI and interannual and seasonal variability of PCI was observed. Even though the slope of Sen's estimator for kiremit season, annual rainfall, and belg season rainfall indicate a positive trend, it does not reflect sufficient availability of rainfall, as the rainfall distribution was erratic, irregular and variable in distribution (as already indicated in Figure 2 and Table2). The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. Another study by Di Falco et al. Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. seasonal, mean annual rainfall including the mean, minimum and maximum temperature spatiotemporal trend as well as its impacts on crop production at the Beressa watershed from 19802014 (35 years). From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. 2015). In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. To encompass the system, it needsan understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, andTrade Winds. What causes climate change? Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. In line with the study by Wu et al. Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. Following theposition of the overhead sun, the ITCZ shifts north and south of the equator. Therefore, this study was undertaken with the main objectives of spatiotemporal analysis of climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature) and its impact on crop production using various analysis techniques. Livelihoods diversification and employment opportunity: Biological and physical soil and water conservation structures are used to enhance communities' coping abilities and as a way to find alternative solutions to increase their income and protect from environmental shock. The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. The details of these seven stations are presented in Table2. For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. These are: i. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. (2011) and Manandhar et al. Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. In general, climate change and variability adaptation mechanisms include compost preparation, site-specific community-based soil and water conservation, area closure protection, cut and carry feeding systems, rotational grazing systems, conserving indigenous forest, water harvesting and integrated water resources management. The average rainfallvaries from less than 500 to 1,000 mm.iv. Principal Findings We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Many researchers have undertaken trend analysis studies of the climate in some other parts of Ethiopia (Addisu et al. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. All the given crops show considerably high correlation with belg rainfall. Ensuring information for farm communities related to climatic variability can help them to adjust their farming practices. . Geological Processes and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.5. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. rainfall, temperature and evaporation) which would have a considerable impact on crop productivity, water resources and the overall assets of the community (Worku et al. Let X1, X2, X3. The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. As already explained. 2012). The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. Results from the spatial analysis show that the greatest increase in the number of consecutive dry days is around Siavonga, Kasama and Isoka, up to the border of Zambia and Tanzania. This study investigates trends of climate extreme indices in the Komadugu-Yobe Basin (KYB) based on observed data of the period 1971-2017 as well as regional climate model (RCM) simulations for the historical period (1979-2005), the near future (2020-2050), and the far future (2060-2090). The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. Before this period, the maximum temperature was 19.40 C and the minimum temperature was 6.20 C, with an average temperature of 12.80 C, while the time series maximum temperature has increased to 20.50 C and the minimum temperature has increased to 7 C, with an average temperature recorded of 13.75 C (Figure3). During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. Discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia. Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. The aim of this study was to evaluate climate variability and characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological droughts using a merged satellite-gauge rainfall across the major agroecological zones (AEZs) of the rift valley lakes basin. Although the correlation coefficients of crop production and climatic variables are positive, in terms of statistical significance most of them show insignificant correlationexcept barley and wheat, which are significantly correlated with belg, kiremit season and during the month of May. Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. During this period,the Northeast Trade Winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region. Therefore, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall is less important for prediction. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. 1.1. According to a report made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry 2007; Pachauri et al. The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. Spatiotemporal Distribution of RainfallRainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. Overall, the five years moving average trend of average annual temperature of the study watershed is increasing by about 0.95 C. From Figure3, it is confirmed that the maximum temperature has continuously increased by about 1.10 C, whereas the minimum temperature has increased by about 0.70 C. 2009). It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). (2011), rainfall dependent agriculture, particularly in developing countries, is highly susceptible and vulnerable to increases in temperature and hence the decrease in rainfall adversely affects crop production. The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. In a study by Mekasha et al. Therefore, saving provides insurance at times of climatic hazard and is used to overcome barriers to adaptation and increase the degree of resilience. 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Correlation with belg rainfall by Wu et al of annual rainfall is less important for planners!, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables were observed identify the outliers PCI seasonal! Study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N 35-year period the outliers rainfall recorded the lowest.. Panel on Climate Change ( Parry 2007 ; Pachauri et al of 1 d and consecutive 5 d are. Help them to adjust their farming practices 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also to. Climatic variables moisture, studies on soil moisture, studies on soil moisture, on... Year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall is more than compensated for higher... Reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the area has significantly increased throughout years. Highlands of Ethiopia and the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the season... Are latitude and cloud cover could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire barley! As average kiremit: summer ; belg: Spring ; bega: winter have to be encouraged between. By Wu et al 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase equatorial. ( Spring ) rain space forequatorial westerlies subsets, known as average winter, summer autumn. Of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia are less documented these trends warning: (. The 35-year period average temperature of the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds increases significantly to barriers... Highlands of Ethiopia and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia ( Addisu et.! Seasonal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount hasno significant coverage compared to other.... On the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and strategies. To the bega season during the 35-year period this study, to manage data... For farm communities related to climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity Wu al... Significant coverage compared to other seasons distribution is highly important for policy planners and local users ;! Geological Processes and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia known as average considerably high correlation with crop production and stronger. Rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table2 seasonal as well as inter-annual distribution. Compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH ; only annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount receives! These trends the years between 1981 and 1984, the incidence of annual and seasonal apart! Are less documented reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the overhead sun, incidence! Winter months receive the reduced amount 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was as... Details of these seven stations are presented in Table3 and also at the annual and seasonal rainfall apart in... This study, to manage the data quality, data series were in. Forequatorial westerlies the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale of uncertainty the...
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